Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 53.4%
Voorspellers
23
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd27 okt 25, 22:32 UTC8 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWill South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government completes its full 4-year term from 2025 to 2029.
- The market resolves NO if the government dissolves before the end of 2029, triggering early elections or a change in the governing coalition through other constitutional means.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the German Federal President or Bundestag regarding the dissolution of parliament or a change in government.
- The 2025 election took place seven months ahead of schedule due to the 2024 collapse of the Scholz governing coalition.
- On 9 April 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD secured a ruling coalition agreement, and the German parliament elected Friedrich Merz as chancellor on 6 May 2025.
Open markten
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 494,6K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 809,3K
- 24u volume
- € 123,4K
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 53% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? afgewikkeld?
- Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? wordt naar verwachting op 8 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria