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  3. Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

One-OffForeign Exchange6mnd
PolymarketPolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Ja
Ja 19%
Marktkwaliteit

49 / 100

Lage kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 0

Liquiditeit

€ 13,5K

Gemiddelde liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Gematigde spread
7d wijziging

-2.5%

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 1 minuut geleden

3 dec 25, 17:2631 dec 26, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes19%

Regels

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
  • A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
  • If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
  • If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

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Regels

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
  • A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
  • If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
  • If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”