Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling3 parties 40.5%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd22 sep 25, 18:35 UTC22 mrt 29, 19:31 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
- Resolves to the option representing the minimum number of mainstream parties needed to form a majority coalition (>50% of Bundestag seats).
- Examples: - After the election in early 2025, the market would have resolved to "2 parties" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition was possible. - If there were an election held today that matched current polling (September 2025), the market would resolve to "the named outcome" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would not be possible, but a CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens coalition would.
- Definition of "mainstream" Parties:
- Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
- Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party) Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum