Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 86.4%
Voorspellers
31
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd27 feb 25, 10:06 UTC31 okt 29, 22:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government?
KalshiWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013.
- In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
- This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
- The market resolves to NO if:
- The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
- The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election