KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 57%
Marktkwaliteit
55 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 595,5
Liquiditeit
€ 661,4
Lage liquiditeitBied / Laat
40.0% / 44.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Gematigde spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
24 aug 26, 21:00 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
PolymarketWill any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
PolymarketRegels
If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe VergeAgence France-Presse
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.
- The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count A coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 695,7K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 24,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 294,7K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 291,3K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Kalshi prijst No op 57% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt AfD in a German state government in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- AfD in a German state government in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt AfD in a German state government in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Waar wordt AfD in a German state government in 2026? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Polymarket.