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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd16 jan 24, 21:05 UTC17 dec 00, 21:40 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
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FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
- He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Open markten
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 58,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 460,9K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20276%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 29,3 mln.
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+6.0pt86%
- Yes-6.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 20,2K
- 24u volume
- € 5,4K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030+0.1pt71%
- Before 2029+0.1pt30%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 257,2K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-8.0pt31%
- Above 1-2.0pt13%
- Above 2-4.0pt6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+1.0pt51%
- Before 203247%
- Before 203030%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 118,8K
- 24u volume
- € 2,1K
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 82% per 15 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Humans go extinct by 2200? afgewikkeld?
- Will Humans go extinct by 2200? wordt naar verwachting op 17 december 2200 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Humans go extinct by 2200? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.