Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 79.3%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd14 apr 26, 18:13 UTC14 apr 00, 18:08 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.
- This market will resolve YES if there is strong evidence that a majority of people who were cryopreserved before 2026 spent at least 24 hours after legal death but before having their remains vitrified at cryogenic temperatures.
- It will resolve NO if there is strong evidence that a majority were cryopreserved with less than a day's wait time.
- I won't resolve until there is clear, unambiguous evidence about how it should resolve.
- I also won't bet.
Open markten
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 6,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 28,1K
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,5K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.5pt93.1%
- Yes+0.5pt6.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 944,9K
- 24u volume
- € 8,2K
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- Kenya14%
- India6%
- Ethiopia-2.0pt5%
+13 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,4K
- 24u volume
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 600061%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 882,9K
- 24u volume
- € 1,7K
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
- On Nov 13, 202696%
- On Mar 13, 202789%
- On Nov 19, 202786%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 16,3K
- 24u volume
- € 1,3K
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 79% per 15 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? afgewikkeld?
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? wordt naar verwachting op 14 april 3000 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.