Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
EconomieOne-OffSociety & Culture4jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 81.3%
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22
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd20 mei 24, 12:23 UTC25 dec 30, 04:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
She wrote this article: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/05/17/my-last-five-years-of-work/.
- She actually speculates she might only work for 3 more years.
- Resolves to YES if Avital Balwit has gainful or plausibly impactful employment, including self-employment but excluding household work and raising children, during the year 2030, constituting an average of at least 20 hours/week of work over some 6 month period.
- Domestic work such as child care does not count towards this.
- Resolves to NO if Avital Balwit does not have such gainful or plausibly impactful employment to this extent, for any reason.
- Resolves to 50% if we have no idea what she is up to.
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 91 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 569,7K
- 24u volume
- € 47,4K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 359,2K
- 24u volume
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 16,4K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Totaal volume
- € 314,7K
- 24u volume
- € 9,5K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 81% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? afgewikkeld?
- Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? wordt naar verwachting op 25 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: She wrote this article: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/05/17/my-last-five-years-of-work/.