Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNo consensus 85%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
25
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd9 mei 22, 03:43 UTC1 jan 30, 01:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?
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KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
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PolymarketRegels
Resolves to one if it is universally accepted (except a tiny fringe), otherwise is weighted based on something believable as to the current state of thinking, like something published in quanta magazine for example.
- Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 pm
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030?
- Manifold Markets prijst No consensus op 85% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030 afgewikkeld?
- Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030 wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to one if it is universally accepted (except a tiny fringe), otherwise is weighted based on something believable as to the current state of thinking, like something published in quanta magazine for example.