Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingQuantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing) 37%Koploper van 12 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
8
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 24 minuten geleden
2 jan 26, 15:18 UTC30 sep 26, 14:16 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Chemistry Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket
Manifold MarketsWill at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold Markets2026 Nobel Physics winner?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiSuper Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030
KalshiRegels
These independent markets resolve Yes if any of the 2026 Physics Nobels are awarded for work in X, in whole or in large parts.
- Multiple markets can, and probably will, resolve Yes.
- You can request fields I might have forgotten, but I'm not doing too niche things I would have difficulty resolving.
- In case of ambiguity, I will discuss in the comments and might resolve N/A. I have formal education in the field, and will not participate to stay impartial.
- Despite this, there is some element of subjectivity in the resolution.
- I will provide my rationale for resolving, and you can also look at my previous Nobel market to judge my reliability.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket?
- Manifold Markets prijst Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing) op 37% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket afgewikkeld?
- Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: These independent markets resolve Yes if any of the 2026 Physics Nobels are awarded for work in X, in whole or in large parts.