Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 64.1%
Voorspellers
80
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd28 jun 23, 02:39 UTC28 okt 30, 11:33 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2?
Manifold MarketsWill @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem
- The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in decision theory in which whenever an ideally rational epistemic agent is awoken from sleep, they have no memory of whether they have been awoken before.
- Upon being told that they have been woken once or twice according to the toss of a coin, once if heads and twice if tails, they are asked their degree of belief for the coin having come up heads.
- Resolves based on the consensus position of academic philosophers once a supermajority consensus is established.
- Close date extends until a consensus is reached.
- Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem, Adam Elga (2000) - https://www.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.pdf
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 64% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? afgewikkeld?
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? wordt naar verwachting op 28 oktober 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem