Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 69.9%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 minuten geleden
5 apr 24, 14:16 UTC1 jan 30, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?
Manifold MarketsIs the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2?
Manifold MarketsWill any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRegels
The linked market is set up to extend its closing until consensus is reached in Martin's opinion.
- This market will resolve when 2029 ends.
- Why this market? In my opinion the linked market is quite probably way off.
- If the linked market is likely to resolve, it is worth tracking the market and betting my belief.
- If it "never" will, the market can stay wrong indefinitely, and my expected value is hard to decide.
- Therefore this market, which is more decidable.
Open markten
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 30,8K
- 24u volume
- € 18K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Totaal volume
- € 8,7K
- 24u volume
- € 7,7K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,4K
- 24u volume
- € 952,2
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Totaal volume
- € 516,1
- 24u volume
- € 516,1
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Totaal volume
- € 516,1
- 24u volume
- € 516,1
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 136,3K
- 24u volume
- € 419
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 70% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The linked market is set up to extend its closing until consensus is reached in Martin's opinion.