PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attualeSì 7%
Qualita del mercato
80 / 100
Alta qualitàVolume 24h
315,4 €
Liquidità
38,4K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
7.1% / 7.4%
Spread
4.2%
Spread moderatoVariazione 7g
+0.6%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
29 mag 26, 13:1431 dic 26, 0:00
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Yes7%
Confronta le piattaforme· No
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketQuesta paginaMigliore in assoluto | Alta | 93% | +86pt | 315,4 € | 38,4K € | 7 minuti fa | |
 Futuur87% di corrispondenza · auto | Bassa | 92% | +85pt | 0 € | 650,5 € | 27 minuti fa | Apri → |
Disponibile anche su Futuur
Will China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
5m
92%
8%
28 • Bassa qualitàSpread sconosciutoBassa liquiditàMercato poco profondo
Volume totale0 €
Volume 24h0 €
FUTUURRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
- A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
- The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Trend del volume
$3592 lug24g di dati26 lug
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
- A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
- The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.