Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 94.5%
Previsori
68
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 26, 22:33 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
PolymarketWill China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
FutuurIf Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
Manifold MarketsWill China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)
Manifold MarketsWill China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:
- Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.
- China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.
- Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.