PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 88.1%+1.0pt
Qualità del mercato
64 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
60,2 €
Liquidità
8,1K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
3 set 26, 13:29 UTC31 ott 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?
PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth leave office in 2026?
PredictItRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31??
- Polymarket quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31??
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Dove altro è quotato Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi, Polymarket.