PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 93%+0.5pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
21,5 €
Liquidità
843,5 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
6.0% / 8.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
1
Variazione 7g
-1.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
23 apr 26, 22:20 UTC31 mar 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
- For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 90,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 358,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 554,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8K €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume totale
- 314,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 11K €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 17,7K €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 76K €
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Japan recession in 2026??
- Polymarket quota No al 93% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Japan recession in 2026??
- Japan recession in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 marzo 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Japan recession in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.