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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Economia
  3. Japan recession in 2026?
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

1.5% (24h)EconomiaOne-OffUS Politics9m
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 27%+0.0%
Qualita del mercato

24 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidità

634,8 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

20.0% / 34.0%

Spread

70.0%

Spread ampio
Variazione 7g

-4.0%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 minuto fa

23 apr 26, 22:2731 mar 27, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes27%

Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Asset Sensibili al Macro

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Attivi in questi argomenti

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Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.