PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna quotazione live
Dati al 18 set 2026, 02:41 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
2028 17%
Qualità del mercato
41 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
2,9K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
8.0% / 14.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Spread ampioCommenti
1
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
10 giu 26, 02:31 UTC1 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExSocial Security COLA for 2028
KalshiWill I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
- A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
- A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
- The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercati aperti
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 266,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 76,4K €
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%+1.0pt92%
+11 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 93,1K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 157,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 35,3K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes-1.0pt6%
- Volume totale
- 3,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 12,3K €
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+2.0pt90.1%
- Yes-2.0pt9.9%
- Volume totale
- 1,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 12,1K €
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%+1.0pt98%
- Above 2.3%+5.0pt86%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI core in October
- CPI core in September
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US Nominal GDP in 2026
- China unemployment rate in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Social Security Insolvent by which date??
- Polymarket quota 2028 al 17% al 18 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Social Security Insolvent by which date??
- Social Security Insolvent by which date? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Social Security Insolvent by which date??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.