PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 99%-0.1pt
Qualità del mercato
65 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
20,9 €
Liquidità
17,9K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
0.7% / 2.2%
Spread
1.5 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
10
Variazione 7g
+0.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
7 dic 25, 23:21 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
EU dissolves in ?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketOPEC dissolves in 2026?
PolymarketNATO dissolves by 2028
Manifold MarketsThe current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
- 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
- EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.7pt20%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt2%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 27,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 865,3K €
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.5pt96%
- Yes+0.5pt4%
- Volume totale
- 36,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 466,5K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt54.5%
- October 31-3.5pt30.9%
- September 30-2.0pt11.8%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt21%
- October 31-4.5pt13%
- September 30-1.6pt4%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Volume totale
- 58 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 136,9K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 altri esiti
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per EU dissolves before 2027??
- Polymarket quota No al 99% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve EU dissolves before 2027??
- EU dissolves before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato EU dissolves before 2027??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.