Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 53.1%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto17 ago 25, 10:40 UTC30 mar 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government revert cannabis legalization in the next 4 years?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketEU dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition.
- This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet.
- Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes).
- (bundestag.de)
- Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties).
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 53% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 marzo 2029.
- Come viene liquidato The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria