Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.6%
Previsori
151
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto29 gen 23, 03:36 UTC1 feb 38, 08:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
- If at least 1 million people in the US experience some noticeable and significant disruption as a direct result of Y2k38, this resolves YES.
- The impact must be caused by the bug itself, not people preparing for or freaking out about the possibility.
- As an exception: If there's some highly disruptive last-minute "preparation" like "we're shutting down this entire system on December 30th because we didn't prepare it in time", I'll count that as having been caused by the bug.
- Bugs that occur more than a few days before or after January 19th do still count.
- The bug doesn't have to take place in the US, just the impact.
Mercati aperti
Russia / Ukraine
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75.8%
- New People (NL)-2.0pt20.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 267,7K €
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume totale
- 529K €
- Volume 24h
- 55,4K €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December+1.0pt8%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- No meeting before 2027+1.5pt93.1%
- Switzerland-0.3pt2%
- Turkey-0.4pt1%
+11 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- China+1.0pt54.5%
- No meeting by December 3134.6%
- Gulf country+2.1pt3%
+12 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- No+2.5pt69.3%
- Yes-2.5pt30.7%
- Volume totale
- 369,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 34,2K €
- Bank of Russia decision in September?
- Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
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- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States??
- Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2038.
- Come viene liquidato Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem