Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2026?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / Ucraina2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.4%
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto1 gen 26, 05:36 UTC1 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Whether Ukraine has "control" of territory is deferred to credible sources (e.g. Critical Threats, BBC).
- "any part" means any single location.
- If Ukrainian forces make a beachhead via naval landing on the Crimean coast and hold it for a week, this would count.
- If Ukrainian forces control a farmhouse north of Perekop on the Crimean side of the boundary, this would count.
- "at least a week" means continuously holding that single location.
- If Ukrainian forces hold onto a single location discontinuously (have it one day, then lose it the next), or hold onto different locations for a continuous week, neither of these would count.