If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
One-OffPolitica USAPoliticaElezione2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 82.3%
Previsori
403
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 30 minuti fa
24 gen 24, 04:35 UTC8 nov 28, 06:32 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsIf elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRegole
In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8 Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term.
- Who is right?
- I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here.
- Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president.
- This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.
- Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024
