KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before Election Day 20%-5.0ptIn testa tra 3 esiti
Qualità del mercato
48 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
1,1 €
Liquidità
45,4K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
6.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
25 ott 25, 14:00 UTC7 nov 28, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegole
If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 615,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 730,5K €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Volume totale
- 29,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 643,3K €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 altri esiti
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 altri esiti
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 14,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Volume totale
- 19,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 483,5K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Trump run for a third term??
- Kalshi quota Before Election Day al 20% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Trump run for a third term??
- Will Trump run for a third term? dovrebbe risolversi il 7 novembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will Trump run for a third term??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.