Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 82%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto26 feb 26, 19:12 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from being elected to a third presidential term under the 22nd Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump officially announces a candidacy for the 2028 presidential election (whether as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate).
- It resolves NO if he does not announce such a candidacy by the end of 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official campaign announcements, FEC filings, or statements from Trump or his authorized representatives confirming intent to run.
- Since beginning his second term in January 2025, Trump has floated the possibility of seeking a third term upon the 2028 United States presidential election on November 7, 2028.