Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 82%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 53 minuti fa
In ritardo26 feb 26, 19:12 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump run for a third term?
KalshiObama announces third term candidacy before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump file to run for President for a third time?
FutuurWho will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from being elected to a third presidential term under the 22nd Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump officially announces a candidacy for the 2028 presidential election (whether as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate).
- It resolves NO if he does not announce such a candidacy by the end of 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official campaign announcements, FEC filings, or statements from Trump or his authorized representatives confirming intent to run.
- Since beginning his second term in January 2025, Trump has floated the possibility of seeking a third term upon the 2028 United States presidential election on November 7, 2028.
Mercati aperti
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume totale
- 24,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7K €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3K €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Donald Trump run for a third term?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 82% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Donald Trump run for a third term?
- Will Donald Trump run for a third term dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Donald Trump run for a third term?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria