If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
PoliticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElezione2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 51.7%
Previsori
86
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto19 feb 25, 04:18 UTC9 nov 28, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRegole
Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election
- Update 2025-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Constitutional eligibility will be assessed on election day, rather than at state filing deadlines.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 52% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win??
- If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? dovrebbe risolversi il 9 novembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election