Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%In testa tra 7 esiti
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Previsori
203
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto28 giu 24, 04:42 UTC20 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.
- If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "the named outcome" resolves YES and "the named outcome" resolves NO.
- If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
- If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement.
- Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Conspiracy Theories Do Not Count
- Claims by conspiracy theorists or groups (e.g. QAnon) that Trump is secretly POTUS will not affect the resolution.
