Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 55.4%
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47
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo6 mag 23, 12:14 UTC31 dic 50, 19:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegole
The Russian civil war of 1917-1923 doesn't count.
- I only mean a war that started later that the creation of the market (6 May 2023).
- Update (25 Jan 2024): after discussion with @PS, I decided that if an edge case arises, I will check Wikipedia and Western media and see if they consistently describe the conflict in question as a civil war.
- Also, if in doubt, I may or may not temporarily freeze the market and consult the traders, and/or resolve N/A.