Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 94.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto26 ago 22, 03:21 UTC1 gen 30, 08:00 UTC
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Will there be a civil war in Nigeria before 2030
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FutuurRegole
"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
- It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots.
- It's an "I know it when I see it" kind of thing.
- I won't bet.