Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 16:20 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 91.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo9 giu 25, 21:24 UTC1 feb 27, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsThe End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".
- Resolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.
- Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.
- Temporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.
- A full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.
- Note: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.