Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore Jan 2027 13.6%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-4.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto30 gen 26, 23:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a formal ceasefire agreement or peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming the agreement's existence and implementation.
- The agreement must include a cessation of active hostilities.
- Technical or temporary pauses in fighting do not qualify.
- If a ceasefire is signed but subsequently violated before year-end, the market still resolves YES if the agreement was formally executed.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026?
- Manifold Markets quota Before Jan 2027 al 14% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026?
- The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria