Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.3%
Previsori
42
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto17 nov 25, 01:59 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
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PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the Ukraine-Russia war ends by December 31, 2026. "War ends" is defined as a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or other official cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized by both governments and results in a sustained halt to major combat operations for at least 30 consecutive days.
- The market resolves NO if active combat continues beyond December 31, 2026, or if any ceasefire/agreement breaks down before the 30-day threshold is met.
- As of September 2025, Russia's war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years, with no end in sight despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting.
- Neither round of talks achieved a breakthrough, although agreement was reached on the exchange of prisoners of war and Ukraine and Russia have committed to continue dialogue.
- Russia's president Vladimir Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, while Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression.
Mercati aperti
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- J.D. Vance50%
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- Jon Ossoff17%
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- Gavin Newsom14%
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- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Ukraine war ends in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Ukraine war ends in 2026??
- Ukraine war ends in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Ukraine war ends in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria