Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
PoliticaOne-OffMedio OrienteGeopolitica2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 59%
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Aggiornato 16 minuti fa
4 nov 23, 09:58 UTC7 gen 27, 12:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.
- The war "ending" is defined, for the purposes of this market, as the Wikipedia page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war no longer saying "status: ongoing" in the infobox.
- This includes the status being changed to indicate the war transitioning into a frozen conflict, which Wikipedia tends to do when conflicts are no longer active but never officially ended: the war will be considered "over" for the purposes of this question if that happens.
- In the case of Wikipedia listing the war as no longer "ongoing", I'll wait some time to ensure the change is not reverted, and for any edit war to conclude.
- Then I'll resolve the market based on whether Netanyahu was Prime Minister at the time the change appeared to become final.
- I reserve the right to use a more sensible definition if this turns out to be a bad one, but the spirit is to include both official and de facto ends to the war, whilst deferring to a fairly reliable third-party information aggregator like Wikipedia.
