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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Geopolitica
  3. Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticaMiddle East16g
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
June 30
June 30 3%+0.1%
In testa tra 7 esiti
Qualita del mercato

52 / 100

Qualità media
Volume 24h

414,5 €

Liquidità

17,5K €

Liquidità media
Bid / Ask

2.7% / 3.9%

Spread

44.4%

Spread ampio
Variazione 7g

-6.2%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 minuti fa

10 ott 25, 15:2730 giu 26, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
October 31
October 31
0%
December 31
December 31
0%
November 30
November 30
0%
November 7
November 7
0%
March 31
March 31
0%

Esito scelto

June 303%

Regole

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
  • Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Mercati Correlati

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

7,4 Mln €
December 31: 83%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

4,9 Mln €
July 31: 87%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

1,4 Mln €
Sì: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket]

26,8K €
Sì: 41.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

4,6K €
Sì: 1.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

3K €
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$64,519.89+1.64%EthereumETH$1,687.34+1.32%SolanaSOL$69.41+4.08%DogecoinDOGE$0.0884+1.09%XRPXRP$1.15+1.90%BNBBNB$610.09+1.03%

Notizie Correlate

Tensions in Hormuz keep traffic normalization unlikely by end of JuneBlockchain.NewsBahrain Leads Odds as Straits of Hormuz Bet Quietly Sits TightBlockchain.NewsCrypto Markets Eye Trump’s Iran Deal After Strike CancelledBlockchain ReporterIran closes Strait of Hormuz as US strikes deepen tensionsCrypto NewsTrump warns Iran of new strikes as oil prices riseCrypto NewsBitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto News

Regole

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
  • Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.