PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
December 31 23%In testa tra 8 esiti
Qualità del mercato
53 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
70,7 €
Liquidità
10,2K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
357
Variazione 7g
+4.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
9 ott 25, 19:17 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketRegole
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Futuur — Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? · December 31 31%
