Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?
GeopoliticaOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 57%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 26, 02:01 UTC31 dic 30, 01:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.
- This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.
- "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.
- A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 57% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)