Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 23:51 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 91.6%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto7 apr 26, 15:57 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be detonated in or above Canada before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated within the internationally recognized borders of Iran at any time before January 1, 2030.
- For the purposes of this market, "nuclear weapon" is defined as any explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions (fission, fusion, or a combination thereof).
- The determination will be based on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official verification from international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations.
- If there is no confirmation of such an event by the resolution date, the market will resolve to NO.
- As of April 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East involves active conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel.
