Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.1%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 52 minuti fa
In ritardo2 dic 24, 02:19 UTC2 gen 35, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than 9/11 before 2035
Manifold MarketsWill any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a confirmed theft of an operational nuclear bomb before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegole
Nuclear terrorism has been a concern since the end of the Cold War, particularly regarding the security of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union.
- While no terrorist group has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon to date, experts continue to monitor this threat.
- Building or acquiring a nuclear weapon requires highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are tightly controlled materials.
- Most nuclear power plants use low-enriched uranium, which is not suitable for weapons.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if a terrorist group or individual successfully detonates a nuclear weapon (fission or fusion bomb) before January 1, 2035.
