Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?
RegolamentazioneOne-OffIA3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 64.9%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto1 lug 26, 00:38 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc
- Resolution criteria
- Target Model: This market resolves based on the first brand-new, uniquely named Claude model tier or family released by Anthropic after July 1, 2026.
- To qualify, the model must use a completely new class/tier name (e.g., if Anthropic releases "Claude 6 Sonnet" or "Fable 6", it does not count).
- It must not belong to the Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos families.
- Definition of "Banned": The model will resolve YES if, within 90 days of its official public release (via API or web interface), any of the following occur:
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 96,6K €
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- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 65% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"??
- Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc