Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeJanuary 2029 or earlier 64.8%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto26 dic 25, 09:30 UTC31 gen 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.
- When the command involves moving the character, this entails use of a "navigation" tool that allows Claude to take multiple steps at a time.
- This is presumably due to how arduous it would be to require Claude to take each step individually.
- It would produce a lot of extra tokens (filling Claude's context with useless content) with Claude not being able to process more than one screenshot per character step without having to stop and think, slowing down gameplay considerably.
- This market resolves YES for all times at or before which a general-purpose, publicly available AI model from Anthropic, either explicitly named Claude, or part of a model series clearly the successor to the Claude series of models, can process frames of a Pokemon game and take actions with an emulator tool, at a faster rate than the character in the Pokemon game can take steps.
- This speed requirement includes all networking and processing latency in an implementation of Claude Plays Pokemon, and must be demonstrated in some publicly-visible form, such as a Twitch live stream.
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
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- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps??
- Manifold Markets quota January 2029 or earlier al 65% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps??
- When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.