Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeQ4 2026 14.2%In testa tra 12 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto13 nov 25, 18:57 UTC31 dic 30, 18:50 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRegole
I want to interact with as few people as possible before getting to Lighthaven
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES when anyone (public release, not a closed beta) can book and complete a fully driverless Waymo ride from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to Lighthaven, located in Berkeley, CA.
- Resolution requires:
- Waymo offering fully autonomous service (no safety driver) at SFO for passenger pickups
- Waymo's service area extending to Lighthaven in Berkeley
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 96,6K €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven??
- Manifold Markets quota Q4 2026 al 14% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven??
- When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I want to interact with as few people as possible before getting to Lighthaven