Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?
One-OffEconomia2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 68%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto11 set 23, 01:05 UTC11 set 28, 21:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurRegole
Its hard to quantify this exactly.
- At least according to this article the (mid-term) damage in global economic growth was about 2 trillion USD (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html).
- Anything reasonable near that number counts.
- If you have better ideas to measure this, comment below.
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 323,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 523K €
- Volume 24h
- 22K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volume totale
- 611,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,5K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+1.0pt6%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- 2026: Trump's dream year?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 68% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years??
- Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years? dovrebbe risolversi il 11 settembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Its hard to quantify this exactly.