Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 63.4%
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Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto18 apr 24, 16:09 UTC1 feb 40, 15:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.
- Any architecture that primarily relies on using next-token prediction, such as GPT 4 or Claude 3 would count as an LLM.
- Update 2026-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Agentic wrappers and harnesses (such as those handling tool calls, context management, or preloaded skills) do not prevent a system from counting as an LLM.
- The architecture will still be considered as relying on next-token prediction if its core intelligence is derived from the underlying model.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 269,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 199,9K €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 4,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 107,5K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,3 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 85K €
- Volume 24h
- 65,3K €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 63.4% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Will the first AGI be a large language model? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2040.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.