Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
One-OffCriminalità e giustizia3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.2%
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27
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 52 minuti fa
In ritardo18 dic 22, 05:02 UTC31 dic 29, 05:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
- Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors.
- Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.
