Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
SportOne-OffReligionSociety & CultureChess3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 90.3%
Previsori
109
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto18 giu 23, 03:15 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism.
- This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).