Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
SportOne-OffReligioneSocietà e culturaScacchi3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 89.5%
Previsori
111
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
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Aggiornato 39 minuti fa
18 giu 23, 03:15 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism.
- This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
