Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
One-OffCriminalità e giustizia3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 94.7%
No 94.7%Previsori
13
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto21 nov 22, 15:40 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
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It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
- The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable".
- And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
- I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
