Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
One-OffCrime & Justice3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 94.7%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto21 nov 22, 15:40 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
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Manifold MarketsRegole
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
- The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable".
- And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
- I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030??
- Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.