Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
InflazioneOne-OffMacro ed economiaEconomia7a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 71%
Previsori
64
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 minuti fa
28 ago 26, 12:50 UTC31 dic 33, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Chinese median wage go over half of chinese GDP per capita by 2033? Currently ~33%
Manifold MarketsWill the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q4 2026?
PolymarketJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiRegole
William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES):
- [tweet]This market will resolve when their bet is resolved unless they somehow abandon the bet, in which case I will attempt to apply the specified resolution criteria, which are as follows:
- The fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q, up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q−4 (i.e., as of one year before Q).
- Otherwise the no-fast-growth side wins.
- Data series: the official BEA measure — "Real gross domestic product per capita," U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 7.1 (series A939RX; quarterly, seasonally adjusted). "Real" means inflation-adjusted: nominal GDP deflated using the BEA's chain-type GDP price index (the GDP deflator), currently expressed in chained 2017 dollars.
- The series is currently available on FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA