Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomia7aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 75%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
28 ago 26, 12:50 UTC31 dic 33, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES):
- [tweet]This market will resolve when their bet is resolved unless they somehow abandon the bet, in which case I will attempt to apply the specified resolution criteria, which are as follows:
- The fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q, up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q−4 (i.e., as of one year before Q).
- Otherwise the no-fast-growth side wins.
- Data series: the official BEA measure — "Real gross domestic product per capita," U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 7.1 (series A939RX; quarterly, seasonally adjusted). "Real" means inflation-adjusted: nominal GDP deflated using the BEA's chain-type GDP price index (the GDP deflator), currently expressed in chained 2017 dollars.
- The series is currently available on FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA
Mercati aperti
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- No change-2.0pt46%
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+2 altri esiti
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- CPI core in August
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Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033??
- Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2033.
- Come viene liquidato Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES):