Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomia3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 64.8%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto7 nov 24, 22:17 UTC1 gen 30, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketUS GDP growth in Q3 2026
FutuurFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRegole
This question will be resolved based on official U.S. economic data, focusing specifically on annual real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation).
- The question will resolve as “Yes” if real GDP growth for any full calendar year exceeds 5% between the years 2024 and 2029, inclusive.
- Otherwise, it will resolve as “No” if no such year exhibits this level of growth by the end of 2029.
- Specific Criteria
- Data Source:
- • The resolution will use official data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or another recognized authoritative economic body.
Mercati aperti
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 77,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,5K €
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 65% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030??
- Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question will be resolved based on official U.S. economic data, focusing specifically on annual real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation).