Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 53.7%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto25 feb 26, 19:14 UTC1 gen 27, 19:08 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Quroe's favourite animal prop bets - It ______
Manifold MarketsWill any restaurant serve hybrid-rice (rice grains integrated with animal cells) regularly by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
Referencing this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal)Hopefully it will manifestly obvious™ (i.e. wildly different shape/structure to human e.g. a dog or horse wouldn't count, a cat [barbed penis] or hyena [external vagina] would count imo) but I'm willing to defer to a Manifold poll if it's hotly contested
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The norm for the species is what counts, not malformations or abnormalities.
- A private part only qualifies as "wacky" if the unusual structure is standard/default for that animal.
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Penile bones (baculum) do not count as wacky private parts for resolution purposes, as they are common among our closest primate relatives and don't produce a strong "wait wtf" reaction.
- The bar for "wacky" is set higher — examples like snail love darts or spider genitalia are the intended reference point.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 54% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts??
- Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Referencing this market: