Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto16 mag 25, 19:23 UTC30 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be excommunicated by Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions CAIS Statement on AI Risk in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text which Pope Francis cites the famous Dartmouth proposal: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 87,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 228,5K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 239,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 53,3K €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028??
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria