Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 94%
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto7 ago 23, 07:26 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketMore white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRegole
Resolved based on data from world bank:
- https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=PL
- <=25000 -> resolves NO
- >25000 -> resolves YES
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Poland's GDP per capita be greater than 25000 USD by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Poland's GDP per capita be greater than 25000 USD by 2030??
- Will Poland's GDP per capita be greater than 25000 USD by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Poland's GDP per capita be greater than 25000 USD by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolved based on data from world bank: